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| Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D-WV), one of several Democrats term-limited out of office in the next two years |
And yet, if the past cycle was rough, there's not a lot of hope going forward until at least 2018. That's because, if you can believe, it, some of the most vulnerable Democratic seats are actually up in the next couple of years during the off-cycle elections. Below we'll go with the six most vulnerable seats up as of today (Number One being most likely to flip), our first rundown of the gubernatorial elections of the next two cycles.
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| Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) |
Gov. Mike Pence (R) won one of the closest races of the cycle four years ago when he faced an unexpected challenge from Democratic House Speaker John Gregg. This cycle, he should seemingly be in better shape as an incumbent, but he is one of the many MANY governors that are exploring a run for the presidency. Though he's an outside shot, were he to be on the ticket, he wouldn't be able to run for president and that would make this race open. Republicans have an enormous bench in the state, so there would be a slew of ambitious Republicans lining up for the seat, including Reps. Todd Young and Susan Brooks, as well as Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard. Democrats have a lot of former office holders that could run here (that's going to be their case in many races in 2016), and none really seem to jump off the page in an obvious way since former governor and senator Evan Bayh has taken a pass. Still, they do have former Rep. Baron Hill and former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel who could make a pass at the race should it open up.
5. Montana
If red state Democrats in 2014 don't feel like the national party did anything wrong by running to the right in the Midterms, expect Gov. Steve Bullock to be "asserting his independence" pretty darn quickly. As of this writing Bullock doesn't have any opponents (and the Republicans have an oddly thin bench in the state), but Attorney General Tim Fox may change his mind and decide to run for the governor's mansion, or Rep-elect Ryan Zinke may see an opportunity to mirror Steve Daines and get a promotion to higher office after just one term. Either way, expect this race to start to tighten as Republicans smell blood-in-the-water when it comes to red-state Democrats.
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| Attorney General Roy Cooper (D-NC) |
If the Democrats want to start to pick up the pieces of what happened to their Southern coalition in 2014, there's no better place to start than in North Carolina. We already know that there's a potentially competitive Senate race on the map, particularly if Democrats can figure out a way to get Kay Hagan to run against her former colleague, but Gov. Pat McCrory is not popular in this state, and in a neutral cycle this might be a major push back against the narrative that Democrats simply cannot win in the South as well. Democrats have their top candidate already in Attorney General Roy Cooper, who is finally running for higher office after multiple entreaties to go for a promotion in the past. If the national environment is close or slightly leaning Democratic in 2016, expect this race to move up this ranking.
3. Missouri
No incumbent governor has been rocked harder than Jay Nixon in the past year, particularly with his critically-panned performance in the wake of the incidents involving Michael Brown in Ferguson. Thankfully for the Democrats they don't have him running for reelection (he's ineligible), but he could well be an albatross for Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster, who is widely viewed as the likely nominee for the left. On the Republican side, I suspect several Republicans will give it a shot, as there is a really ambitious bench of new GOP legislators representing the Show Me State and not a lot of chances to move up. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer and State Auditor Tom Schweich both would be extremely formidable, and would probably start out in the frontrunner slot.
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| Attorney General Jack Conway (D-KY) |
Though they got routed in Southern gubernatorial and Senate races in 2014, the Democrats do still have two southern governorships, both of which top our list because I'm a little concerned that outside of NC, FL, and VA the Democrats may not be able to win statewide anymore in the South. Democrats have a very popular incumbent governor who probably could win reelection, but he's term-limited, so they are falling on Attorney General Jack Conway, Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo, or Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, all of which have won statewide in lower offices but have recently lost bids for the Senate. Any of them would be formidable (and it seems like Conway has the edge at the moment), but I think would start as the underdog when compared to State Agriculture Commissioner James Comer.
1. West Virginia
I'm genuinely curious if Democrats can win any of the West Virginia statewide races in 2016, let alone the governor's mansion. Democrats actually hold all but the Attorney General's office right now in terms of constitutional offices, but after the losses of Natalie Tennant and Nick Rahall in 2014, I suspect the GOP makes a really strong push to win everything statewide. Democrats have a candidate already in State Treasurer John Perdue, but they may have a better candidate if Sen. Joe Manchin, who is still wildly popular in the state, decides he's had enough of Washington and wants to just go back to the statehouse (this would be devastating for the DSCC as Manchin's the only Democrat who can hold that seat). On the Republican side, I suspect a laundry list of Republicans, including Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Rep. David McKinley, and perhaps even Olympic gold medalist Mary Lou Retton will make a play for the seat, though they will be weighing between this open seat and the very competitive race for Manchin's Senate seat in 2018.
Those are where we're at for now with the governor's mansions. As you can see, the Democrats have the three most vulnerable seats at the moment, meaning they could well be in the low teens in terms of governorships by the time the next cycle is over.
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